Since the Paris Agreement, significant legislation has spurred changes in the US like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), one of the most ambitious, with a goal to reduce greenhouse gases by 50% by 2030, below 2005 levels.
Pestana noted, “The European objectives, especially in the battery and energy storage sector, are more developed, but the Inflation Reduction Act, now provides significant impetus for clean tech adoption… Policy is a driving force in holding companies accountable for changing systems ingrained for the last century. It’s not just about reducing dependence on fossil fuels for transportation; it’s also about reshaping our entire supply chains. Policy plays a critical role in incentivizing and regulating these shifts toward sustainability.”
Lai concurs with the necessary influence of policy to fuel change, and pointed to California’s key legislation banning the sale of new diesel trucks by 2036, additional mandating the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) for industrial vehicles by 2025, which specifically target vehicles that produce absolutely no tailpipe emissions.” Heavy-duty trucks represent nearly one third of the state’s nitrogen oxide and more than one quarter of its fine particle pollution from diesel fuel, according to the California Air Resources Board. While medium and heavy-duty trucks are just 10% of the vehicles on the country’s roads, they emit 25% of the greenhouse gas emissions from transportation.”
For Lai’s company, KPM Power’s primary objective is to offer a certified and customizable battery management system. This solution allows other companies working on electric vehicles and energy storage projects to leverage a pre-certified component, streamlining their own certification process. This approach not only accelerates time to market but also promotes the adoption of cleaner technologies for the broader market.
Lai touched on some of the challenges confronting clean tech companies striving to bring their innovations to market in Canada. Government grants and incentives for research and development (R&D) can be a double-edged sword. While these grants undoubtedly encourage companies to invest in R&D, they can inadvertently foster a culture where research takes precedence over the commercialization of innovations. Moreover, government policies and funding can exhibit inconsistency, often subject to changes with shifting administrations. This unpredictability can disrupt the long-term plans of clean tech companies, casting a shadow of uncertainty across the industry. The solar industry in Ontario serves as a poignant example, Lai points out, as experiencing a decline following the cessation of government funding.
Dr. Aazir Khan has over 25 years’ experience in Automotive architecture development, AI and control systems, and green technologies spanning the UK, Italy, Germany, Ireland, and the US. He currently resides in Pakistan, where there is a push to influence adoption of EV technologies and foster the development of locally produced EVs in Pakistan. Khan contends the country…”currently lacks comprehensive regulations for EVs. There are no specific standards or guidelines regarding the types of batteries, cells, or battery management systems that should be used in EVs. This absence of regulations extends to performance standards, such as defining the expected range of an EV.”
Due to the absence of regulations, many EV manufacturers in Pakistan rely on components imported from China. The lack of regulatory oversight can lead to the importation of technology through unregulated channels, contributing to the nation’s dependence on China for EV components. Khan signals that some companies in Pakistan resort to using components sourced from dubious or unregulated channels, including secondhand cells from laptop batteries.
The disparate policies between the west and Asian and African nations are further issues that stall progress towards effective global decarbonization.
Developing a Reliable Infrastructure
One of the pressing challenges in the transition to clean energy is the efficiency of renewable sources compared to fossil fuels. Agbanwu highlights the concept of energy density, which refers to how much energy a given amount of a particular fuel can provide. Fossil fuels like gasoline and diesel have high energy density, meaning a small quantity can generate a significant amount of energy. In contrast, renewable sources like solar panels and wind turbines have lower energy density, requiring larger installations to produce the same amount of energy.
Even with the rise of EVs, Agbanwu highlighted, “the infrastructure for charging remains a critical barrier. In areas with inadequate charging infrastructure, hybrid vehicles might become more prevalent, which, while a step toward cleaner transportation, is not a complete solution.”
Agbanwu points out that the efficiency of solar panels, for example, is currently around 20%, “..this means that only a fraction of the sun’s energy that reaches a solar panel is converted into electricity. Improving the efficiency of renewable technologies is crucial to bridge the gap in energy density between clean and fossil energy sources.”
Can Electrification Meet Energy Demand?
Agbanwu indicates that this will depend on geography and climate. Regions with abundant sunlight and favorable weather conditions can harness solar power effectively. However, in areas with limited sunlight or long periods of darkness, such as during winter months, full reliance on solar energy becomes challenging. Electrification and renewables offer a path towards cleaner energy, but they may not be the sole solution for all regions. In Canada’s climate, the hybrid renewable solutions between solar and wind energy may be optimal for most Canadians.
Lai emphasized that we are in a chicken and egg state. Despite the goals set by governments, there are supply chain challenges especially in the availability of cell production. You can’t even have a battery management system if you don’t have the cells. So that’s a challenge I’m facing is if you don’t have enough cell production, you can’t build anything. So, my production slows down because cell production isn’t fast enough.”
Lai also mentions limitations related to raw materials, such as cobalt, which is a key component in lithium batteries. The availability of raw materials, like cobalt, can impact the production capacity of lithium batteries.
The World Cannot Easily Diversify Away from China, the Dominant Contributor to EV Market
Dr. Aazir Khan, who is helping to lead efforts for EV production in Pakistan, underscores the significance of China as a key supplier of materials for Pakistan’s energy and electric vehicle (EV) industries, including motorbikes. In Pakistan, the national EV policy aims to reduce the reliance on imported fuels by encouraging the adoption of EV technologies and fostering the development of locally produced EVs in Pakistan. Khan continues
“In the Pakistani market, there are approximately 28 million motorbikes. When our company, Aliera , entered Pakistan, we explored the idea of electrifying these motorbikes through retrofitting. Rather than introducing entirely new motorbikes into a system that is already densely populated, and where people may not have the means to purchase new vehicles, our approach was to retrofit these existing motorbikes. This approach takes into consideration the limitations of space and the size of batteries, particularly lithium-ion batteries, that can be integrated effectively.”
Pakistan has approximately 23 manufacturers permitted to produce EVs, but the majority of them function as assemblers rather than manufacturers of core EV components. This reliance on assembly often involves importing essential technology and components. China plays a pivotal role in supplying critical EV components to Pakistan, including Battery Management Systems (BMS), drivers, controllers, motors, and battery cells. Approximately 56% of battery cells are sourced from China, while Korea and Japan command 26% and 10%, respectively of the market. There is a significant cost difference between EV battery cells sourced from China and those from South Korea and Japan, with the Chinese cells being 30 to 40% cheaper. However, Khan noted that this cost difference isn’t solely due to the intrinsic cost but also the complexities in logistics and regulations. Despite the desire to diversify sources away from China, these complexities make it difficult for manufacturers in the EV production sector in Pakistan to shift away from Chinese suppliers.
To complicate matters, the impending shortage of lithium can come as soon as 2025.
“BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit … largely attributed the deficit to China’s lithium demand exceeding that of its supply… We expect an average of 20.4% year-on-year annual growth for China’s lithium demand for EVs alone over 2023-2032… In contrast, China’s lithium supply will only grow 6% over the same period, BMI said, adding that rate cannot satiate even one third of forecasted demand.”
There continues to be innovation to improve battery management systems. From solid state batteries to cathode or anode, the goal is to produce higher energy density, signifying the capacity to store more energy in a smaller package while enhancing the safety profile, reducing susceptibility to thermal runways or fires.
For now, both Khan and Lai agree that lithium batteries (Li-ion and LFP) are the dominant choice for batteries. “It is the lesser of all evils”, insists Lai. KPM Power, however, is also involved in developing backup power solutions using different chemistries, specifically nickel-zinc chemistry. While this chemistry isn’t designed for vehicles, it represents an alternative to lithium batteries, potentially offering solutions to some of the challenges associated with lithium. KPM Power provides a gateway to the market for battery management systems (BMS) and can adapt its products to different battery chemistries. This adaptability allows them to transition from lithium to other chemistries if needed.
Despite global dependence on Chinese manufacturing and refining, efforts to ramp up refining and production in areas like Australia have been underway.
Even the Richer West Nations Struggle to Live up to their Commitments
A recent article cited, “The federal government failed to spend billions of dollars it pledged on a host of climate change initiatives in recent years, raising questions about one of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s core policy commitments and the massive funding publicly devoted to it.” Over 2016-2017 to 2021-2022, approximately $7.78 billion designated for climate-related programs was either unspent or spent more slowly than budgeted. These shortfalls affected initiatives such as building retrofits, clean fuel production, emission reduction projects, and climate adaptation measures, including protection against wildfires. The largest funding gap was in public transit and green infrastructure projects, where only a fraction of the allocated budget was spent.
According to Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific project,
“Canada seems incapable of kicking its oil and gas addiction, deeming it “highly insufficient” comparing its NDC goals (Nationally Determined Contributions) or climate pledges to the policies it has enacted.
The United States received an “insufficient rating”, referencing the US Congress’ approval of a $1 billion for international climate finance in 2022, falling well short of President Biden’s 2021 pledge to provide $11.4 billion annually by 2024. “The low climate finance provision is not enough to make up its fair share contribution and undermines the credibility of stated US intentions to line up as a global leader on climate change.”
We Have a Long Way to Go
The global shift towards electrification is a response to the pressing need for a sustainable future and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement emphasize the urgency of moving away from fossil fuels and embracing cleaner, electric energy sources. Profits and politics dominate this issue and continue to stall the necessary acceleration to meet 2030 goals. This has impacted the urgency to create access for emerging nations, further hindering progress among more marginalized communities in dire need of improving health and economic conditions. While innovation and progress provide hope, the path forward involves addressing the complex interplay of technological, political, environmental, and societal factors to achieve meaningful progress in global electrification goals globally across sectors.